Wednesday, November 08, 2006

US Midterm elections.

Democrats sweep Governor’s races 28 to 22, house races 229 to 196 and currently lead the senate race 50 to 49 with a lead in the remaining (Virginia) where there could be a recount.

After 12 years in minority, the democrats are back in control of the house that will be led by the fist woman speaker of the house, Senator Nancy Pelosi from California. Senator Hilary Clinton from NY, won by almost 70%, confirming herself as a serious presidential candidate in 2008.

What is very enlightening is that the stock market traded low volume and showed a lot of caution from investors. Corporate America got spoiled under the republicans, with tax cuts, war spending and a good response to their lobby. Democrats will start target Oil Company and investigate the tax cuts they got while enjoying insane profits the last years. Corporate tax loopholes will eventually get addressed.

But, the most important thing to remember is that these elections were a referendum for Bush. Voters for senate and congress were voting for and against Bush and hopefully in the US, the balance is always shifted by the independents (not democrat or republican) who are generally middle class educated people and refuse to vote along party line which in the US is like a religion. US population is 40% always republicans (mostly in Midwest states, rural America), 40% always democrats (mostly in big cities, NY,SF,LA,..) and 20% independents who make their mind according on the current state of the affairs. This makes them the target of the candidates during the campaign. Whoever can convince him that he’ll be better, will win. But if you’re a republican candidate, you’re starting the race with a major handicap…. Bush!

We started to see the result of these elections, by Bush conceding defeat and talking about errors made in Irak. Rumsfield resigning as secretary of defense and new house elected members promising investigations on tons of issues putting Bush in a situation he’s never been in. He was always shielded by the congress and the senate, and I can tell you that we’ll be seeing a lot of comic situations :-)

I still think that this scenario is not as bad as it sounds for the Republicans, specially for the president election in 2008. Because if in 18 months the democrats can’t show sensible improvements on the big issues like Iraq, oil prices, security, there will be an open door for the republicans. In such a period of time and with Bush as president there is no much the congress can do but opposing him on any issue because the senate is almost a tie and a president still has a lot of power on the direction of the country. Bill Clinton spent 6 years as a president with a republican majority but that’s Bill!! So if things won’t change rapidly, the republicans will twist that and use it to get back in business.

So I really don’t have high expectation for the next 2 years. In order to get rid of the perception of arrogance, injustice from the rest of the world’s mind, we need to get a new president in charge and unless there will be impeachment; we’re stuck with the current one.

The only happy republican tonight is the Terminator, Arnold Schwarzenegger who secured his role in the sequel of “Arnold, Governor of California, 2”

Hasta la vista baby :-)


Charlie said...

This could actually help the Republicans in the Presidential race in 2008. The candidate will have to get some distance from Bush, but will have the Democratic Congress to run against.

samsoum said...

Charlie, as I said it is a possibility but I am sure it won't be a slam dunk. I won't bet on it if you know what I mean :-)